The Butterfly Effect

If the last year has demonstrated nothing else, it has demonstrated how interconnected things are and how interconnected we are regardless of how we feel about it. A blockage in the Mississippi means the price of everything going up. A single pipeline shuts down means fuel shortages on the East Coast. The degree to which one thing leads to another is debatable, but the powers that be are certainly making the case that a strong connection exists. I still haven't seen a straight answer on the pipeline shutdown. They say a hack led to a shutdown, but they never give more details. My question is: To what degree are their various systems integrated. For example, it's possible that their company website was hacked making internal communication via email impossible, making it impossible to receive or make payments to employees and vendors, making sensitive information vulnerable, etc. And because of this, it was decided that the financially prudent thing to do was to shut down the pipeline until these matters were addressed. On the other hand, it could be their company website was hacked making it physically impossible to regulate the flow of fuel making an emergency shutdown the only safe thing to do.

Which one was it?

Simply saying that a hack led to a shutdown doesn't tell you if they shut down the pipeline because they physically couldn't control the pipeline or because doing so was in the best interest of their shareholders or those with a vested interest. Either way, you have a problem although one is much worse than the other. If the problem is there is no effective firewall between the online presence of the company and the software management of its infrastructure, I'd like to know why that is the case. I understand that everything is controlled by computers, and often remotely, but why do you need so many access points for a system that essentially only has to stop, start and regulate the flow of fuel? Let me use another example. Most modern cars have computers, but I don't want Windows running on my vehicle because I know the moment my car uses windows is the moment it stops working properly. There just isn't a need to add so much vulnerability to a system in exchange for being able to sync all your smart devices. I will gladly forego being able to adjust the temperature of my fridge from my car to not have a bunch of poorly-written software integrated into my vehicle that is just waiting for some pimple-faced teen to hack into and create his own real-life version of Mario Kart or the scene from one of the Fast and Furious movies. It just isn't necessary.

Anyway, that was a tangent. But we have many examples of how connected things are. The price of raw materials spike means lumber goes up and now the cost of construction of new homes/businesses goes up or construction gets halted. Less supply means higher prices for existing homes or structures which is harder to afford because you've been out of work during the pandemic. Another example: It makes more sense for a fast-food worker to stay home and collect unemployment rather than to go to work for the same or less. That means it takes longer to get a burger and less profit for those businesses. Restauranteurs now have to decide if they want to pay a living wage or try to automate more of the process so they need fewer workers(which they may or may not pay a little more). If they are able to do the latter, what do you think happens with all those low-skill workers once the unemployment and stimulus money runs out? Well, that will be our problem, won't it? Let's say they decide to pay the workers $15/hr instead to incentivize them to turn off daytime talk shows and go back to work. Annually, that comes out to around $31,200. So that's how much you are going to pay a year for someone to flip burgers or take orders? I'm fine with that. But here is how much your average private school teacher in Georgia with a college degree makes:

Uh oh, Spaghettios!

Do you see the problem? The fast-food worker says, "Why tf would I go to work when I can make the same or more staying home? So you pay them more. But now the teacher says, "Why tf should I go into debt for a degree when a high school dropout can make more than me, have a better life than me, and even deal with less daily disrespect? The answer, of course, is you have to pay the teachers more. My point is just to illustrate how one thing affects another.

One thing I thought about is the following: If the price of raw materials, food, and fuel is going up, what does that mean for Dollar Stores which were thriving during the commercial meltdown of 2018? If your branding depends on everything costing a single dollar, but the price to get everything into your cart goes up, well, it doesn't take a business major to see how that would be unsustainable. Even if all supply routes were free and clear today, we all know downward adjustment of prices tends to lag behind. It seems to me that all those Dollar Trees are going to be in trouble soon if they aren't already. And given that they're damn near-ubiquitous, what would it do to the American Psyche to see so many stores shuttered? Perhaps Dollar Stores are doing well enough to weather this particular storm. I'm just giving you another theoretical example of how one thing can affect another thing. And, before you know it, it's affecting you. A final example: Some a-hole or agent releases a virus in China and 6 months later, your Aunt Pearl is drowning in her own lung fluid, but that's good news for all the makers of ventilators. Their shareholders will be pleased because of your grief. The same is true with funeral homes and crematoriums. Certain businesses will be booming with all the doom and glooming and it's all because there's someone walking around right now whom you've never heard of who is likely going to be responsible for more deaths than Hitler. The point is there are some things we can anticipate. Others will hit us harder than a sucker punch from Tyson: both Mike and the company responsible for the chicken shortage.